A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
